Climate Change and Development Issues for Island States : Melbourne Indymedia

A few months ago, four major hurricanes and tropical storms – Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne – struck the Caribbean islands (and southeastern United States), causing thousands of casualties in Haiti and devasting Grenada. This worst Caribbean hurricane season in living memory, along with other extreme weather events that took place in 2004 in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, are seen by many as empirical evidence of impacts that are harbingers of the expected effects of climate change.

Sea levels are currently rising at about two millimetres a year, but there are sign this rate may be increasing. Rising seas could swamp countries like the Maldives and Tuvalu. While the fate of small island nations is at risk, developed countries also stand to lose. Many cities around the world are located near coasts. Flooding from rising sea levels could cause massive damage to infrastructure.

Mike MacCracken, chief scientist for climate change programmes at the Climate Institute, a Washington think-tank, said "It's often presented as a problem only for developing nations. (But) developed countries will be very much at risk because so much infrastructure is at sea level."

The city of London is already considering proposals for a ten-mile barrier across the River Thames to prevent it flooding. Scientists believe without such a barrier Westminster may be inundated in 6 feet of flood water. Jim Hall, of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, an author of the proposals, said: "We wanted to look at the more extreme but still plausible scenarios for sea level rise. The chances of these happening are small but the consequences are so dramatic that we have to prepare for them."

The proposal is for a vast embankment, from Sheerness in Kent to Southend on the other side of the estuary in Essex. The barrier would contain gates to allow water to flow in and out of the Thames Estuary according to the tides. But the gates would be shut if a flood seemed likely.

Coastal areas like the east coast of North America and particularly Florida are vulnerable to rising sea levels. A Satellite photo from NASA/JPL gives a dramatic demonstration of how Florida's low topography, especially along the coastline, make it especially vulnerable to flooding associated with storm surges.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that the global average sea level has risen by 10 to 20 cm over the past 100 years. This represents a rate of increase of 1 to 2 mm per year, i.e. some 10 times faster than the rate observed for the previous 3,000 years. It also projected a global average temperature increase of 1.4-5.8°C, and a consequential rise in global mean sea level of 9-88 cm, by the year 2100.

Flooding could cause billions of dollars of damage around the world. In Bangladesh, 17 million people live less than one metre (three feet) above sea level.

In February 2004, the nine islands of the low-lying atoll of Tuvalu were submerged by "king tides" with peaks approaching three metres. These tides washed over the lowest points of that nation, whose highest point is only 4.5 metres (15 feet) above sea level, affecting freshwater sources and damaging food crops. According to its inhabitants, such king tides, once rare for the islands, now occur roughly every two years. The worst flooding happened in 2001, when practically all the entire land area of these islands was under water.

In Mauritius on January 10, civil society groups called for greater action from the international community to address the special needs of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Advocacy groups raised concern over the lack of progress in the implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA), agreed at the first such conference a decade ago. Aid to 45 states has fallen by more than half in eight years, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to external shocks.

Coordinator of the Civil Society Forum, Pynee Chellapermal, told journalists the calamity that had befallen Asia in December was an "eye-opener" for the international community to the "fragility" of small island countries, and it was "critical" that donors pledged their support to the development of an early warning system. But other concerns were also stressed including the "dearth of resources, poor human and institutional capacity" and the "lack of technology transfer" were also to blame for chronic underdevelopment.

"Our environmental concerns have a lot to do with poverty: for example, the lack of fresh water doesn't have anything to do with the quantity of rain we receive annually - we just do not have the resources to harness the rain when it does fall," said Mohammend Amidou, president of the Comoran Association for Environmental Development. In some parts of the Comoros archipelgo less that 10 percent of the population had access to safe drinking water.

At the formal International Meeting of SIDS environmental vulnerabilities were discussed. Delegates focused on: early warning systems; destruction of coral reefs and mangrove forests; concerns with linking climate change and extreme events; provision of financial resources for early warning; GEF’s role in renewable energy projects in SIDS; capacity building; pre-disaster action; climate mitigation; information and education; earth observation technologies; climate monitoring networks and systems; international cooperation; socioeconomic impacts of climate change; partnerships; and sharing of new technologies.

Trade and Development are also major topics of discussion. Representatives from several Small Island Developing States (SIDS) highlighted that over the past decade trade liberalisation had severely battered their fragile economies. Participants appealed for "special" treatment for their exports, which would compensate for the high economic costs resulting from their remoteness and smallness.

Alongside the United Nations sponsored meeting of leaders there were more grassroots events: the Community Vilaj and Civil Society Forum (6-9 January 2005). The latter, organized to establish the accomplishments and shortcomings of the Barbados Program of Action of 1994, saw the participation of 2,000 delegates from all over the world, including 25 heads of State. There has been some criticism that accomplishment of the objectives of the civil society forum has been hindered by a lack of consensus and optimization of resources.

The Community Vilaj, which goes by the motto, "Local voices, global impact", regroups people who have reduced poverty with ecofriendly projects in their towns or villages. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP), has enabled many to attend to maintain continuity of their projects through the exchange of ideas and experience on a wide range of environmental and social subjects.

There is also an Island Innovations Fair on Resilience Building Technologies and an Institute@SIDS, which is a joint initiative of the UNDP and the Smithsonian Institution, offering free training courses to Vilaj’s participants.

The Innovations Fair exhibits sustainable development technologies that "directly address specific economic and environmental vulnerabilities of SIDS". An example of such innovative technology is the Uehara Cycle presented by the Institute of Ocean Energy of Japan’s Saga University. The Uehara Cycle, which uses Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) to convert the temperature difference between the warm surface seawater and the cooler water at a depth of 800 metres into electricity, is seen as a solution to both the precariousness of energy supplies on islands and global warming.

How many more times will the same drivel be trotted out?

Just a couple of years ago a detailed surveyed showed that the maldives were RISING, not sinking.

Bangaldesh is in danger of floding because its tectonic plate is tilting. (See Wikipedia entry for Bangaldesh).

Elsewhere eustacy and isostacy are major causes for changes in sea- level. (eg. In the UK, the north-west is rising and the south-east is sinking.)

Numerous detailed studies of meteorological records - not newspaper hysteria - have shown extreme weather events are becoming less frequent not more frequent. In some cases the severity of events is linked to the temperature difference between tropical and polar regions therefore poles warm (however much), extreme weather events will decrease in number.

Throughout history sea levels have changed, temperatures have changed, winds have changed, rainfall has changed.

There's diddly evidence to say that recent changes are not natural, just plenty of government-funded bodies or bodies purporting to be charities saying it.

Where I am we're halfway through summer and still waiting for a string of hot days. The USA and western Europe are suffering storms. So much for warming!

Snowman

Weather pattering is only the expression of the Natural Processes of Turbulence. Demand for 'belief' of/in "(unnatural) climate change" is diverting attention from NATURE towards proffered 'opinion' & explanation' of Natural events that is not at all related to Nature, & regardless of WHAT that diversion of attention is towards be it a 'greenhouse' rhetorical or model, or some other source/device of rhetorical discourse, it is still NOT a discourse involving direct notice of NATURE.

The WARMING being noticed is of the Planetary Surface & is OBVIOUSLY linked to Human Population Growth and the Sprawl of Habitat construction associated to such Population (see charts in link '**' below). This is REAL and will not cease until the effects of such Sprawl as well as the construction of this Sprawl are DIRECTLY faced and understood. There is NOT at all any UNNATURAL alteration to climate occurring in any validly shown or even obvious manner & as such 'greenhouse based' climate models, only processing OPINION as these devices are, have no relevance to the REAL environment Humanity exists within. See outlines in link '*' below to realise other real flaws in 'greenhouse theory' further removing such theory from detailing the actual Environment Climate is displayed within.

The previous 400 years of such Population Growth and Sprawl had its effect (& observations of) such deferred by required developments of Technology to facilitate the Sprawl construction burgeoning Populations needed. The NEXT 100 years is NOT facing such deferment of 'inputs' (& observable effects) to the accumulative process that is altering overall Turbulence, with only the RESIDUAL Kinetic Energy displaying its presence as a rise of the SURFACE MEDIAN TEMPERATURE. The OCEAN is following the Land surface in a delayed and muted trend, delay from the [processes of Conduction & Convection whilst the muting is from internal productions of Turbulence within the Ocean surface.

Notice (in slide of Glaciations in link '**') the period already spent within the current 'Primary Trough' along with the 'past patterning' for the last 1 billion years. This is showing decreasing periods for Primary Trough behaviours with these events in 'pairings'. The present 'block' is near the size the 'prior event pair' 'first element trough' & is also near the 'correct size' for NOW to become a 'reversion event' observation as the present warming has such a 'natural potential'. See also outline 'Glaciers Reborn' in link '*' to notice how 'unnatural additions' to natural processes of TURBULENCE creation could prevent such an outcome. The individual 'blocks' of these pairings are getting shorter at each 'repeat', so from NOW it is very likely Climate could rise to a 'shorter' Primary Crest that will be will be followed (after a few more Million years) by a slightly 'longer than the present' Trough period (of a few more Million years). It is also that the present Primary Trough behavior observed of Climate can readily be expected to begin reversion back to a Primary Crest Behavior is MORE than plausible by observing the chart of Glacial Behaviours seen in outlines within link '**' below.

Pollution, 'greenhouse labelled' or otherwise, is not wanted but such pollution is NOT creating UNNATURAL climate alterations. It is certainly 'very plausible' for expectations of the overall Climate Oscillation to rise back into the Primary Crest behavior from NOW, this being the 'position' Climate held for the ~200,000,000 years prior to this now ~3,000,000 year long 'Trough' period. This is see a NATURAL vertical rise of Relative Sea Levels of between ~30 & ~50 metres above 'now' and above those 'sea levels' noticed otherwise within the past 3 Million year period.

Humanity does indeed need to adapt, & to move Habitat and become less reliant on fixed infrastructure however this is a requirement garnered from DIRECT attention to NATURE, and the GARDEN environment Humanity does exist within. The 'Trees' where left Millions of years ago, 'Caves' Humanity left Thousands of years ago... What next should be the question, after the Present 'Suburbia' will Humanity need to 'move to'...it is coming time for a 'move' again, as the GARDEN continues to develop so too must Humanity...

Your's,
Peter K. Anderson a.k.a. Hartlod™
E-Mail: Hartlod@bigpond.com
(*)- http://hartlod.blogspot.com/
(**)- http://hartlodsgallery.blogspot.com/