Australian oil production declining fast : Melbourne Indymedia

The latest global oil production data from the Energy Information Agency (USEIA 2004) includes a significant revision for Australian production. The EIA now estimates that in 2003 Australian oil production fell by 18%, and that in the first four months of this year it is down by 15% in comparison to the same period last year.

This is bad news in anyone’s book, worse than older Geoscience Australia and Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics estimates. Geoscience Australia estimated that, “Australian stocks of crude oil (in the ground) will be exhausted in 8 (now 5) years if the current rate of production is maintained and there is no discovery of new reserves” (GA 2001a). There have been no significant discoveries in Australia since that time.

The ABARE study, conducted by Woodside Energy p/l Managing Director John Akehurst, said: “Projections by Australian Government forecasting agencies indicate that Australia is facing a rapid decline in liquid petroleum production over the next decade. Liquids self-sufficiency is expected to decline from an average of 80-90% over the past decade to less than 40% by 2010.” (Akehurst 2002)

Before reflexive Pollyanna’s leap to defend the ‘limitless bounty as our birthright’ fantasy, I’ll quote J.Williams, CEO of Geosciences Australia, testifying to House of Reps commitee last year: “Turning now to petroleum, just to add to our submission, the situation with production to reserves ratio, which was around 11 in the submission, has now deteriorated considerably down to five, which means that our indigenous supplies of liquid crude oil resources are certainly deteriorating. That raises questions of petroleum security and the like” (HoR SCIR 2003).

John Howards 150% tax rebate/subsidy for oil exploration wont do anything apart from boost bonus’s and provide ex-ministers with board seats. As (foreign explorer) Japan Australia LNG (MMI) stated in their submission to the House of Reps (HoR SCIR 2003), “there are few impediments to oil exploration in Australia that rival the generally very low chance of success for finding crude oil.”

Thanks to Little Johnnies foresight, corporations now don’t even have to find anything to make a profit! How long will taxpayers subsidise industry to look for what isn’t there, while ignoring the major changes required to avert a forced power down?

References
Akehurst J (2002) 'World oil markets and the challenges for Australia.' ABARE, Canberra.
http://www.woodside.com.au/NR/Woodside/investorpack/SG3682_3_ABARE.pdf

HoR SCIR (2003) Chapter 2 - Inventory, Draw-down and Replenishment. In 'Inquiry into resources exploration impediments'. Parliament House, Canberra. (Hansard)
http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/reps/commttee/R6228.pdf

Geoscience Australia (2001) 2000 Oil and Gas Resources of Australia. Quoted by the ABS at http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/ce28d7fbe5faa308ca256cae0015da32?OpenDocument

USEIA (2004) Global Oil Production Data. US Energy Information Agency. Available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/supply.html

Here's a thought if you have savings in the bank, and spend up big without investing your surplus in alternative supranuations. will your future be fucked up?

I linked in from lifeaftertheoilcrash.com/breakingnews

Hi Ljiam,

Thanks for this article and the one on the environment page which led me to it. Appreciate the update comparing Geoscience with ABARE. (A bit amazing that ABARE, which is so gungho, should be biting the bullet.)

You know what I would really like to see? An article about Australia's coal reserves and who has bought rights to what proportion, especially rights to make coal-oil.

I heard ages ago that Japan had rights to coal in the Latrobe Valley for coal oil. Would make sense, since Japan has few primary fossil fuel resources - except geothermal and wave, tidal, and hydro. And I don't know what amount it has of those.

Keep it up!

Sheila N

What a joke.
by Peak of oil company propaganda! Monday August 09, 2004 at 01:32 PM

Australia is significantly EXPANDING its oil and gass production at the moment. What do you think they are doing in ET and the in the Bass Straight? Why do you think they are building millitary bases in the NT, oil rigs all over the place and a gass pipeline from Tasmania?

The whole point of that Woodside report:

"Priority should be given to:
- the identification of changes to the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax which would
encourage frontier and deepwater exploration and the development of marginal
oil accumulations and stranded gas resources;
- the introduction of internationally competitive depreciation write-off periods of all
oil and gas industry assets."

... is to scare government into GIVING THE OIL INDUSTRY MORE MONEY.

Peak Oil is falling into their trap.

Sorry Liam, I made the same dumb mistake of mixing up oil with gass and coal as I did in my previous argument with you (learn me to think before I type!). But I still stand by my comments about that Woodside report as well as other arguments I have made about Peak Oil.

Australia's oil production has been declining since 2002. However, the figures of 5-8 years you quoted above are exaggerated (or assuming the worst). They are also only reffering to currently operating wells. Also, ET is not part of Australia (however much our government would like to think), but there are large oil and gass reserves off the coast of WA, NT and around Cartier Island - the reason Australias territorial waters keep expanding. THe other thing to note is that there are large deposits (30 billion barrells) of shale oil off of Queensland (Barrier Reef) which the oil companies are slowly getting their claws into exploration and drilling rights for.

Part of the reason why the production continues to decline is because it is cheaper for companies to get oil from other countries. Both because they have more accessible fields and because of cheaper labour and corrupt governments etc.

"Australia's oil production had increased gradually since 1980, peaking in 2000 at 805,000 bbl/d, 722,000 bbl/d of which was crude oil. In 2002, as was expected, production fell dramatically to 626,000 and since then, has continued to fall with production estimates for 2003 below 600,000 bbl/d. Australia's Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) has estimated that production will fall further to 560,000 bbl/d by 2006. Declines are due primarily to decreasing production at the Cooper-Eromanga and Gippsland basins. The country’s other major basins, the Carnarvon and Bonaparte, have both yielded increasing amounts of oil in recent years, but have been unable to keep up with the country’s rapidly growing demand. "